The cruise group forecasts profits below expectations for the fourth quarter, penalized by operational expenses and global tensions, but demand remains solid
Miami – Royal Caribbean has forecast a fourth-quarter profit below expectations, due to increased costs related to fuel, maintenance, and the delivery of new ships, causing shares to fall by about 8% in early trading.
Despite having raised its annual profit estimate, this remains below analysts’ forecasts, dampening an otherwise positive year, with the stock up about 38%.
The company forecasts an adjusted profit per share between $2.74 and $2.79, below the average of $2.89 estimated by Lseg. In addition to operational costs, the rise in fuel prices due to geopolitical tensions, expenses for drydock periods, and the prolonged closure of the Labadee (Haiti) destination are also having an impact, along with the effects of weather events.
According to analyst Robert Pavlik of Dakota Wealth, port disruptions related to the government shutdown are also weighing on investor sentiment. In the third quarter, margins grew only 3.8%, compared to 13.4% last year, while costs per passenger increased by 2.7%.
For 2025, Royal Caribbean estimates a profit per share between $15.58 and $15.63, slightly below the average of $15.68 forecast by analysts.
Despite margin pressures, analysts remain optimistic about cruise demand, with the sector continuing to outperform other areas of tourism and leisure. Analyst Michael Gunther of Consumer Edge noted that growth is particularly strong among customers with annual incomes between $100,000 and $150,000. In the third quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.14 billion, in line with expectations, and a profit per share of $5.75, above forecasts of $5.67.
