Given the obstacles in the development of alternative fuels, such as methanol and ammonia, the market is already showing a tendency to move more towards its adoption, as there are infrastructures and supply adequacy.
According to executives of the Norwegian ship classification society, the demand for LNG, as a marine fuel,
is expected to double by 2030, with the DNV organization currently recording 781 dual-fuel ships in operation and predicting that this fleet will exceed 1,400 ships within the next five years.
“Based on the current order book, the number of ships will rise to 1,417 by
2030, but we expect it to increase, as new orders are confirmed,” said Kristian Hammer, senior consultant at DNV.
The Japanese Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104.T), which has the second largest fleet of ships
in the world, is dynamically turning to LNG as a transition fuel. Today, it operates 15 LNG dual-fuel ships and has already ordered another 42.
According to the company, refueling with LNG reduces emissions compared to oil by 19% on a “well-to-wake” basis, meaning taking into account emissions from extraction and production up to the consumption of the fuel on the ship.
At the same time, the Danish giant Maersk, which until last year focused exclusively on green methanol, is diversifying its strategy and has ordered 20 container transport
ships with LNG dual-fuel, with scheduled delivery from 2028
to 2030.
Meanwhile, a clear message in favor of the reliability of LNG as a marine fuel comes from a new independent study in France published by SEA-LNG, an international non-profit organization-alliance that promotes the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a marine fuel.
Researchers recorded for a period of 12 months the emissions of the Brittany Ferries ship Salamanca, which operates on LNG, with the results showing significantly lower levels of methane leakage than European authorities had estimated until now.
Specifically, the annual methane slip was found to be 1.57%, that is, less than half of the default reference values (approximately 3.5%) used in ship emission regulations.
The research, under the guidance of lecturer Benoit Sagot from ESTACA, was published in the scientific journal Journal of Marine Science and Engineering.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is emerging as the protagonist of decarbonization in shipping, as there are already massive export projects expected to reduce the cost of the fuel.
The largest of these are in full development in the United States, where new facilities in the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana) strengthen the country’s position as a top global exporter.
At the same time, Qatar is implementing the colossal North Field Expansion program, which will increase its production capacity by 64% by 2030, while significant projects are advancing in Australia, Mozambique, and Russia.
The first two countries, the USA and Qatar, are estimated to define the global market, creating an LNG oversupply and pushing prices downward in the next decade compared to conventional heavy fuel oil.
Furthermore, this specific alternative fuel already has infrastructures and supply adequacy compared to the obstacles of limited facilities that exist for other alternative fuels, such as methanol and ammonia.
“Shipowners, ultimately, will choose the fuel that offers them the lowest cost,” said Tuomas Maljanen, deputy director LNG & New Energies at Fearnleys, adding that LNG is immediately available and is expected to become even more affordable.
