The new Shipping Market Outlook report from VesselsValue captures a market with strong
freight rates, but also increasing uncertainty, as the “shadow fleet” continues to create unpredictable balances on the international shipping scene.
European Union sanctions on Russian oil imports, combined with Suez Canal bypasses, have lengthened voyage distances and restricted available capacity, offering support to freight rates.
However, the increase in “shadow shipping,” with a fleet transporting oil and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to Asia, has created complex conditions in the market.
This parallel activity -as highlighted- is shifting demand, while a potential
intensification of sanctions could act as a positive catalyst for the legitimate
market.
Specifically, developments by market:
Certainly, according to analysts, global electrification trends and decarbonization are putting pressure on the long-term demand for fuels.
At the same time, fleet expansion with new vessels and the limited scrapping rate may burden the market after 2025.
Although the orderbook represents approximately 16% of the active fleet, the slowdown in new orders (-55% on an annual basis) indicates that investors remain cautious.
China maintains its role as a key oil buyer, while India and Southeast Asia are emerging as new strong markets.
Although iron ore and coal shipment volumes are showing a decline, the increase
in transport distances due to new trade routes -such as the Guinea-China line
for the Simandou deposit- is boosting overall demand in ton-miles.
At the same time, the Chinese steel market continues to face structural challenges, as the real estate crisis limits domestic consumption, while exports face obstacles due -mainly- to trade tariffs.
Simultaneously, the green transition is creating new dynamics: it increases demand for smaller bulkers with specialized cargoes (e.g., bauxite, nickel, lithium), while limiting thermal coal flows.
Despite the slowdown in global trade, freight rates remain at relatively high
levels, as carriers have reduced sailing speed (slow-steaming) by 2.3%, controlling capacity supply.
The delivery of vessels with a capacity of 4.3 million TEUs in 2024 and new orders (3.3 million
TEUs in 2025) are, however, creating an impending saturation.
With the total orderbook exceeding 10 million TEUs, a supply surplus is expected from 2026 onwards.
The so-called TEU-mile demand is forecast to increase by only 2.4% in 2025, while American tariffs and subdued consumption in Europe limit the prospects
for recovery.
On the other hand, Red Sea bypasses continue to temporarily support freight rates.
Simultaneously, new LNG terminal and liquefaction projects are expected to boost capacity until 2028.
However, fleet growth is now exceeding demand. VLACs increased by 10.9% in 2024, with an average annual rate of 7.4% until 2028, while medium-sized gas carriers (MGCs) are expected to increase by 11.4% annually.
