Despite expectations of 33 new VLCC deliveries in 2026, the renowned UK shipbroker Clarksons still indicates that the year could be a favorable one for the crude oil tanker market. The company’s research department analysis suggests that while the introduction of newbuildings may exert some influence on the freight market, overall fleet growth is anticipated to remain within a “controllable” range.
Clarksons stated, “The overall outlook for next year remains positive, with fleet growth rates expected to accelerate slightly year-on-year but still be manageable.” Specific data shows the company forecasts global tanker fleet capacity to grow by approximately 2.5% in 2026.
On the demand side, Clarksons expects shipping demand to continue its steady expansion and notes potential upside for the market. The company further explained that although the actual growth rate of the product tanker fleet next year might be lower than the overall 5.9% figure (primarily due to a concentration of LR2 tankers in the orderbook, which have the capability to carry crude oil), the growth rate for the remaining clean tanker fleet is still projected to rebound to 4%, exceeding the expected 1% growth in product tanker ton-mile trade.
Another shipbroker, BRS, is also optimistic about the VLCC market, believing its freight rates will remain firm “for some time” with sustained strong demand. BRS pointed out that upcoming refinery activities in Asia are expected to drive more crude oil exports. However, the company also cautioned that accelerated VLCC deliveries could exert downward pressure on freight rates; factoring in potential construction delays, total VLCC deliveries in 2026 could reach 33 vessels.
Regarding market performance, Clarksons’ report shows the tanker market overall remains robust. By the end of September, average daily tanker earnings reached $39,294, hitting a new high in over a year and matching the strong levels seen during the 2022-2024 period, 62% above the ten-year average. This increase primarily benefited from strong momentum in the VLCC market and persistently steady earnings for Suezmax tankers.
Specifically for crude oil tankers, Clarksons statistics show their daily earnings reached $68,000 by the end of September, pushing the 2025 average daily earnings up to $42,148, gradually approaching the full-year 2024 high of $43,172. The research team explained, “The outlook for the crude oil tanker market for the remainder of 2025 is clear and positive.” Continued OPEC+ production increases and resilient import demand have jointly driven vessel demand. Recent strengthening in long-haul shipments from the US to Asia has further amplified this demand growth.
From a supply-demand balance perspective, Clarksons expects crude oil tanker deadweight ton demand to grow by 1.4% in 2025, outpacing the 0.6% supply growth; VLCC deadweight ton demand is projected to grow by about 3% this year, while capacity supply is expected to remain stable.
Meanwhile, the product tanker market has shown healthy performance recently, with earnings remaining stable for most of this year, currently around $22,000 per day.
Clarksons concluded that the short-term outlook for the tanker market is positive, entering a seasonally strong period; although performance across different segments may vary, the growth momentum in the crude oil tanker sector currently appears more robust.
