From tomorrow, October 14, the two countries are proceeding with the imposition of “special port duties,” targeting ships that are economically or administratively connected to the opposing side.
An analysis by the shipbroking house SSY points out that the two programs are almost identical in structure and timeline, starting with a surcharge of approximately 55-56 dollars per Net Register Tonnage.
However, while the US had announced the measures several months earlier, allowing an adjustment period, China surprised the market.
The new Chinese duties are not limited to ships with US flag or build – which are a relatively small quantity in international trade anyway – but extend to all ships owned or operated by US legal entities, as well as to companies where US citizens or organizations hold at least 25% of the shares, voting rights, or positions on the board of directors.
This “economic ownership” clause is the real point of friction. It may “trap” hundreds of listed shipping companies, given that large percentages of their shares are held in accounts of American investment banks and funds.
Companies with American financing or shareholders with dual nationality may also fall under the new regime.
According to SSY, the initial consequences include the creation of new charter parties to replace the affected vessels, causing temporary imbalances, as well as moves by charterers to avoid the “operator” status.
At the same time, there may be a redistribution of the fleet, with “American” ships moving towards markets outside China (India, Southeast Asia, Atlantic), potentially putting pressure on freight rates on key routes.
Conversely, routes to China and the Pacific may be temporarily strengthened, as the availability of clean capacity will decrease.
Beyond the immediate disruption, this move reinforces the fragmentation of global trade into “Western” and “Eastern” networks.
If the capacity not aligned with the US is insufficient for Chinese imports, the additional cost will be passed on to the charterers and ultimately to the importers, leading to an increase in the prices of goods imported by China.
Dr. Roar Adland, head of research at SSY, notes that “the special duties essentially constitute an additional voyage cost, which will either be absorbed by the shipping companies or passed on along the value chain.”
Arrow Research notes that the Chinese measure is clearly a countermeasure and that the lack of clear guidelines may lead to administrative obstacles, delays, and ship diversions.
According to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence, more than 440 bulk carriers have direct or indirect American participation.
As SSY concludes, “the market may absorb the short-term impacts, but long-term, shipping will have to operate in two parallel universes – one with an American and the other with a Chinese stamp.”
The market reacted immediately on October 10, with a rise in spot freight rates.
Regarding the 31 listed shipping companies of Greek interests on the American stock exchange, the overwhelming
majority – that is, 29 companies – closed with negative signs on Friday.
