In its recent financial report, d’Amico International Shipping details the factors affecting the freight rates of product tankers. Among them are the supply of crude oil, refinery production, demand for oil products, long-term oil product prices, and several others.
Regarding the factors affecting the demand for product tankers, based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand recorded an increase of the order of 750,000 barrels per day during the third quarter, compared to the corresponding period in 2024. This increase followed a sluggish second quarter for oil demand, mainly due to tariffs. IEA estimates for oil demand, both for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026, are set at 700,000 /day.
At the same time, refinery production will chart an upward course by 600,000 /day for the remaining days of 2025, and an additional 460,000 barrels within 2026, reaching approximately 84 million barrels daily. Additionally, the IEA estimates that, by 2030, refinery production will be strengthened by 4.2 million /day, following the addition of new refining facilities, mainly in areas of Asia. Their location is a significant factor, given that they are east of the Suez Canal, lengthening the voyages of product tankers. In fact, Clarksons foresees growth in the seaborne trade of oil products in 2026, of the order of 1.3%, following a 3.4% decline within 2025.
Moving to the supply side of product tankers, one observes, through d’Amico’s data, that the productivity of the said fleet has decreased since the start of the war in Ukraine, supporting freight rates.
On the other hand, Clarksons points out that the product tanker fleet will expand by 5.6% in 2025, following 68 deliveries of MRs and LR1s in the first nine months of 2025. It is noted that, during the same period in 2024, the corresponding number was 14. Of course, so far in 2025, only 37 new orders for MRs and LR1s have been added to the orderbook, compared to a total of 178 in the same period of 2024.
Finally, the recycling activity of MRs and LR1s in 2025 appears particularly intense, with a total of 820,000 dwt having been removed from the market to date, compared to 120,000 dwt throughout 2024.
