Disrupted crude flows, sanctions and floating storage sustained exceptional tanker earnings in late 2025
Crude tanker earnings held near cycle highs in late November, even as analysts began to ask whether a prospective ’peace dividend’ in Ukraine could erode some of the structural support behind tonne-mile demand.
Maritime Strategies International’s (MSI) latest HORIZON Monthly for oil tankers reported benchmark VLCC spot earnings averaged US$101,/day in the first two weeks of November, up from US$78,/day in October.
Clarksons’ Shipping Intelligence Weekly showed TD3C (MEG–China) time charter equivalent earnings for modern VLCCs at about US$132,/day in the week to 28 November, with other longhaul routes trading at comparable levels.
Suezmax and Aframax tanker benchmarks followed suit, with Suezmax tanker average earnings near US$85,/day and key Aframax tanker trades in the Atlantic basin approaching US$70,/day.
MSI attributed the strength in crude rates to a broad-based increase in cargo availability and growing ’friction’ in trade flows.
Global seaborne crude shipments rose 2% month-on-month in October to an estimated 224.5M tonnes, led by higher exports from the Middle East and Latin America.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports reached their highest level this year at 21.8M tonnes (up 3% month-on-month), even as Ukrainian drone attacks kept part of the country’s production and export capacity offline.
Sanctions were an important additional driver, with new US and UK measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil coming into force on 21 November; the two companies exported 1.9M b/d of crude in September, around 85% of which went to China and India.
Indian refiners increased imports of Russian crude by 13% month-on-month in October to 7.4M tonnes and are expected to lift November volumes further ahead of the sanctions deadline.
