The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) on Friday raised estimated /26 wheat production by 420,000 metric tons, cementing expectations for a large Australian harvest that will put downward pressure on global prices.
With crops already being reaped, GIWA in a monthly report also raised its forecasts for Western Australian barley production by 200,000 tons and canola production by 480,000 tons.
The state is likely to produce its biggest ever harvest of all grains combined, it said.
Western Australia is the largest crop export region in Australia, a major global supplier of grains and canola.
Abundant global supply of wheat helped push benchmark Chicago futures to five-year lows last month, though prices have since regained a little ground.
Western Australia should produce 13.1 million tons of wheat, a record-high 7.5 million tons of barley and 4.3 million tons of canola in the current harvest, GIWA said.
That compares to average production over the last five years of 11.2 million tons of wheat, 5.2 million tons of barley and 2.8 million tons of canola.
The outlook has improved as the season has progressed. GIWA’s new wheat estimate is 3.7 million tons higher than its first prediction in July.
“Initial indications at the start of harvest are that crops are yielding more than expected and in many parts of the grain belt, are well above pre-harvest estimates,” GIWA said in its report.
“The mild temperatures in spring have pushed yields to record highs in those areas where moisture was not limiting and the areas where moisture was limited are still likely to hit recent averages.”
Barley and canola quality was good while wheat quality was mixed across the state, it said.
As the harvest got under way last month, analysts expected Australia to produce 35.7 million tons of wheat in total this season, the third-largest amount on record.
Following are GIWA’s November estimates and comparisons with last month’s forecasts and last season’s production. Crop numbers are in metric tons.
Source: Reuters
