DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 charts shipping’s path toward net-zero, highlighting emerging fuels, onboard carbon capture, and new IMO regulations that could reshape fleet economics and accelerate decarbonization across the global maritime industry.
The global shipping industry is entering a decisive decade in its transition toward net-zero emissions. DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050—now in its ninth annual edition—provides a detailed roadmap of the technologies, fuels, and regulations shaping this transformation. During a recent webinar, DNV experts Eirik Ovrum and Oyvind Sekker outlined the report’s findings, offering insights into regulatory shifts, fuel readiness, and emerging solutions like onboard carbon capture and wind-assisted propulsion.
From Readiness to Action
According to Ovrum, the maritime sector is “ready to move forward.” Technological development has progressed rapidly, but fuel production and infrastructure still lag. “We are waiting, but not standing still,” he said. LNG and methanol-capable ships continue to dominate the order books, while ammonia-fueled vessels are now being tested at scale. Meanwhile, onboard carbon capture (OCC) and wind-assisted propulsion systems are gaining traction, with real-world installations already underway.
The landscape is shifting not only technologically but also institutionally. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is on the verge of adopting a net-zero framework, including the world’s first global pricing mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions. DNV estimates that this scheme could generate USD 10–15 billion annually through a new IMO fund.
Understanding the IMO Net-Zero Framework
The proposed IMO system will require ship operators to account for well-to-wake emissions—that is, the total greenhouse gas footprint from fuel production to combustion. Vessels will need to meet two targets: a base target and a stricter direct compliance target.
Owners can comply in three ways:
Use low GHG fuels to meet the targets directly.
Purchase “remedial units” from the IMO fund to offset excess emissions.
Buy or sell “surplus units” from vessels that outperform their targets.
DNV’s case studies suggest that, with current biofuel prices, blending biofuels may be more cost-effective than paying penalties. Overperforming ships could also sell surplus units to less efficient ones, although Ovrum cautioned that “the benefits of such a strategy will diminish over time” as emission thresholds tighten.
Fleet Composition and Fuel Potential
The Maritime Forecast identifies large bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships as key players in global emissions. While large ships emit more per vessel, they are also more energy-efficient per tonne of cargo. DNV’s analysis shows that:
Half of all large newbuilds are now alternative-fuel capable.
Three-quarters of large container ships are methanol- or LNG-ready.
One in five tankers can already handle low-GHG fuels.
By 2030, the potential consumption of alternative fuels could reach 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent, representing roughly 18% of the fleet’s total energy use.
LNG leads the way, followed by methanol, LPG, ammonia, and hydrogen.
However, DNV cautions that “potential does not equal utilization.” Many LNG- and methanol-capable ships still rely on conventional fuels, especially when alternative prices rise.
Fuel Production: Slow but Promising
On the supply side, DNV projects 70–100 million tonnes of low-GHG fuel could be available globally by 2030. This would be enough to meet the IMO’s base target, but only just. Alarmingly, only 4% of hydrogen-based fuel projects have reached final investment decision (FID), indicating uncertainty in scaling production.
Ovrum emphasized the importance of “chains of custody” — systems for tracking greenhouse gas emissions across the fuel lifecycle. Flexible models like mass balancing and book-and-claim could accelerate adoption by allowing biofuel certificates to count toward compliance, even if the physical fuel mix remains fossil-based. “Such systems can reuse existing infrastructure and reduce both costs and emissions,” he noted.
Carbon Capture: A Parallel Path
Beyond alternative fuels, DNV’s modeling shows that onboard carbon capture could deliver immediate impact. By repurposing existing LNG tanks for CO₂ storage, large vessels could capture a majority of their emissions—even if only a fraction of ports initially provide offloading infrastructure.
DNV’s analysis suggests that with CO₂ reception available at just 20 major ports, global shipping emissions could be reduced by 9%, equivalent to the IMO’s 2030 target. As carbon capture logistics mature, the potential could grow even further.
Wind Power Returns
Another technology making a comeback is wind-assisted propulsion. From rotor sails to kites and suction wings, installations are multiplying rapidly. “The cheapest fuel is the fuel not used,” Ovrum remarked. DNV sees 50 systems already operating and another 100 on order. With potential fuel savings between 5–20% and future carbon credits factored in, wind propulsion could see a breakthrough year ahead.
Strategic Takeaways for Shipowners
As shipping approaches an era of global CO₂ pricing, DNV advises owners to take a proactive stance. The Maritime Forecast 2050 closes with several key recommendations:
Reduce energy consumption now. Efficiency remains the fastest path to cost savings.
Plan for flexibility. Fuel strategies should allow for future conversions.
Consider all compliance options. From biofuels to carbon capture, multiple pathways can coexist.
Monitor regulatory evolution. The IMO’s upcoming net-zero framework could reshape economics across the fleet.
Looking Ahead
DNV’s latest forecast paints both a challenging and promising picture. The technologies to decarbonize shipping largely exist—but deployment, infrastructure, and investment remain bottlenecks. As Ovrum summarized, “Shipping is ready. Now it’s time for fuel production, regulation, and collaboration to catch up.”
