Maritime Circle Focus, June 21st. According to the latest statistics from Italy’s Banchero Costa, global seaborne iron ore trade maintained steady growth in the first five months of 2026. Demand from China, the world’s largest iron ore importer, strengthened significantly, with cumulative imports rising 7.1% year-on-year, accounting for over 70% of the global seaborne iron ore import volume. China’s robust demand for iron ore continues to benefit the demand for Capesize and VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier) shipping capacity. Discharge volumes at major northern ore ports in China have also risen concurrently, providing strong support for the fundamentals of dry bulk iron ore transportation throughout the year.
Global iron ore exports are rising across the board, with Australia and Brazil remaining core supply sources.
In the first five months of 2026, total global seaborne iron ore shipments reached 692.2 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year. Export volumes from mainstream ore-producing countries generally achieved positive growth. Australia maintained the top position with exports of 386.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; Brazil exported 149.2 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year; exports from South Africa and Norway increased by 4.7% and 11.6% year-on-year, respectively. Only Canada saw a slight decline of 10.6% in exports, making it the only major producing region with a decrease. From a trade structure perspective, global iron ore demand is highly concentrated in the Far East. Mainland China absorbed 75.3% of global seaborne iron ore supply. Demand from traditional importing countries like Japan, South Korea, and the EU diverged, with most regions seeing a year-on-year decline in import volumes, further highlighting the decisive role of the Chinese market for dry bulk shipping routes.
China’s imports significantly exceeded expectations, with Australian ore accounting for 60% and Brazilian cargo showing impressive growth.
From January to May 2026, China’s cumulative seaborne iron ore imports reached 528 million tons, a substantial year-on-year increase of 7.1%, setting a record high for the same period. Australia remained the primary supply channel for domestic steel mills, shipping 329.5 million tons to China, accounting for 62.4% of total imports. Port Hedland was the largest loading port for Australian ore to China. Brazil shipped 109.7 million tons to China, a significant year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with growth rates far exceeding Australia’s. Ponta da Madeira port handled the core export task from Brazil to China. Performance among non-mainstream supply sources diverged: iron ore imports from Peru and Canada to China surged by 28% and 30.5% year-on-year respectively, indicating a trend towards diversification of import channels; supply volumes from South Africa and India to China saw slight year-on-year declines. Comparing full-year data for 2024 and 2025, China’s iron ore import scale continues to expand. The full-year total of 1.7147 billion tons in 2025 already set a historical record, and the first half of 2026 continues this high level of activity.
Capesize and VLOC vessels handle 90% of iron ore transportation demand.
The strong flow of iron ore cargo directly drives higher utilization rates of large ore carriers. The vessel type distribution for China’s iron ore imports in the first five months of 2026 shows a clear trend towards larger vessels:
Capesize bulk carriers (130,000-220,000 DWT) are the absolute主力, handling 70% of import volumes;
VLOC ultra-large ore carriers (over 220,000 DWT) account for 21%, suitable for long-haul bulk transportation from Australia and Brazil;
Supramax, Post-Panamax, and Panamax vessels combined account for only 9%, handling only a small amount of non-mainstream small and medium-sized cargo.
Market analysis points out that the current deep-sea iron ore trunk routes in the Pacific and Atlantic are highly dependent on large bulk carrier fleets. The continuously high volume of iron ore arrivals in China will continue to support Capesize vessel charter rates, benefiting investment and the period charter market for large ore carriers in the medium to long term.
Northern port discharge volumes lead the country, with the iron ore receiving and discharging pattern stable.
Looking at domestic receiving port data, iron ore discharge from January to May 2026 was highly concentrated in the Bohai Rim deep-water ore terminals. The cumulative discharge volumes among the top ten ports showed significant differences: Caofeidian ranked first nationally with 66.7 million tons discharged, followed by Jingtang Port with 51.3 million tons and Lanshan Port with 45.6 million tons. Ningbo Zhoushan Port, as the core southern ore hub, ranked fourth with 43.6 million tons discharged. Tianjin Port, Lianyungang Port, Dongjiakou Port, Rizhao Port, Huanghua Port, Fangchenggang Port, and Zhanjiang Port formed the second tier. Overall, northern deep-water ports, leveraging their berthing conditions suitable for VLOC and Capesize vessels, continue to handle the vast majority of imported iron ore. The pattern of cargo differentiation between northern and southern ports is unlikely to change in the short term. Anchorage waiting times and /unloading turnover efficiency at northern ports remain key indicators for the shipping and port industries.
Market Outlook: Full-year iron ore demand shows resilience, dry bulk market fundamentals are solid.
Based on historical monthly import seasonality patterns, China’s iron ore imports are expected to remain at high levels in the second half of 2026. The rigid demand for domestic crude steel production will continue to underpin iron ore procurement. On one hand, the annual shipment plans of Australian and Brazilian mines are stable, and capacity deployment at major export ports is sufficient, preventing a significant contraction in deep-sea iron ore cargo flows. On the other hand, new non-mainstream supply sources like Peru and Canada continue to supplement import channels, diversifying the risk of transportation fluctuations from a single supplying country. For shipping industry participants, there is sustained support for Capesize and VLOC fleet demand in the second half of the year. Cargo volumes on core iron ore routes like Australia-China and Brazil-China are ample, which will offset market pressures from periodic fluctuations in coal and grain cargo flows. The overall fundamentals of the dry bulk market for the full year are positive.
