The European road freight market returned to growth in 2025 after a stagnant 2024, but the recovery remains modest and uneven, according to new figures from Transport Intelligence.
Ti estimates that the European road freight market reached €440.4bn in 2025, representing real year-on-year growth of 1.4%. The consultancy expects growth to continue in 2026, with the market forecast to expand by a further 1.6% in real terms to €447.6bn. However, Ti flags that the balance of risks has shifted to the downside since the start of the year, pointing to renewed Middle East energy risk and GDP downgrades in Germany, France and Italy as factors that could weigh on freight demand and operating costs through 2026.
The recovery follows a near-flat 2024 and reflects a gradual improvement in European economic conditions. Ti says the rebound remains uneven, with international freight only now moving onto a more sustainable growth path after two difficult years.
Both domestic and international road freight contributed to the 2025 upturn. The domestic market grew by 1.3% to €303.6bn, while the international market expanded by 1.4% to €136.8bn. The international figure is particularly notable because cross-border road freight contracted in 2023 and only marginally recovered in 2024, suggesting that intra-European trade flows are beginning to stabilise.
For 2026, Ti expects international road freight to outperform domestic transport. The international segment is forecast to grow by 2.2%, compared with 1.4% growth in the domestic market. The stronger cross-border outlook is linked to improving intra-EU trade and a gradual normalisation of demand after the energy shock of 2022, the post-pandemic adjustment in freight volumes and the 2023–2024 freight market correction.
The report also highlights continued caution among fleet operators. New HGV registrations fell by 10% year on year in 2025, although Ti notes that this reflects not only weak market confidence, but also the completion of earlier fleet replacement cycles. At the same time, diesel prices moderated from previous highs, providing some relief on operating costs.
Cost pressures have not disappeared, however. Ti says the spread of CO₂-based tolling systems in countries including Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic is structurally reshaping cost bases, particularly for operators running older, higher-emission vehicles.
Looking further ahead, Ti forecasts steady rather than rapid growth. The European road freight market is expected to grow at an average real rate of 1.9% per year between 2025 and 2030, reaching €483.5bn by the end of the period.
International freight is again expected to grow faster than domestic freight over the five-year period. Ti forecasts a 2.4% CAGR for the international segment, taking it to €153.7bn by 2030. The domestic market, still much larger in absolute terms, is forecast to grow at a 1.7% CAGR to €329.8bn.
According to Ti, the longer-term market will be shaped less by a short-term cyclical rebound and more by structural forces, including manufacturing growth in Central and Eastern Europe, fleet decarbonisation, driver shortages, digital freight technologies and a tightening regulatory cost environment.
