In the second half of 2025, the outlook for the global container shipping market is growing increasingly bleak. Weak demand, overcapacity, and ongoing fluctuations in trade policies are forcing liner companies to reassess their full-year performance expectations. Japan’s Ocean Network Express (ONE) has already taken the lead in lowering its full-year performance guidance, and it is widely expected that more shipping companies will follow suit.
Investment bank Jefferies described the current market in its latest container shipping report as being in a “boring zone that is neither bad nor good,” accurately capturing the prevailing sluggish atmosphere in the industry. Despite a brief surge in freight rates in early summer, market sentiment quickly turned cautious, with the entire industry bracing for a “flat or even absent” traditional peak season.
Market research firm Linerlytica warned that the latest U.S. tariff policies are beginning to have a tangible impact on container volumes. The new U.S.-Europe trade agreement includes a 15% tariff on European goods, which will heavily weigh on transatlantic routes. Data shows that in the first half of 2025, container volumes from Europe to the U.S. increased by 8% year-on-year, but Jefferies predicts a 10% decline in the second half. Meanwhile, capacity on transatlantic routes remains 16% higher than the same period last year. If demand weakens as forecast, the overcapacity issue will worsen further.
Freight rate indices continue to signal pessimism. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has fallen for eight consecutive weeks, dropping another 42 points today. Although several shipping companies attempted to implement a new round of freight rate hikes in August, these efforts largely failed to materialize amid the supply-demand imbalance.
As the world’s sixth-largest liner company, ONE significantly lowered its full-year profit forecast by $400 million in its first-quarter earnings report released today. CEO Jeremy Nixon admitted that geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility in major economies, and ongoing disruptions to global supply chains due to port congestion are all serious challenges to profitability.
Maritime research firm Sea-Intelligence noted that the brief rebound in freight rates in early June has largely faded, and the 2025 peak season may completely “fail to materialize.” In the most pessimistic scenario, global container shipments in August could decline by as much as 26% year-on-year, triggering more voyage cancellations and further declines in freight rates.
Even if a short-term demand surge occurs in late September due to U.S. importers rushing to ship goods ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week, industry insiders widely believe this will be short-lived. Sea-Intelligence warned, “We may see a temporary spike in freight rates similar to June, but it will quickly fall back afterward.”
Lars Jensen, chief analyst at Vespucci Maritime, also stated this week that the spot rates on the U.S. West Coast route, which once soared above $3,000/FEU in June, have now fully retreated, largely returning to pre-rebound levels.
