Houston, 11 May (Argus) — Latin America’s fastest growing crude producers — Brazil, Guyana and Argentina — gushed at last week’s Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, about how their upstream opportunities are even more attractive because of the war in the Middle East. Brazilian crude exports “do not go through a strait”, and offer an alternative to reliance on producers around a troubled Mideast Gulf, as Brazilian oil regulator ANP’s director-general, Artur Watt, said.
The three countries together already produce about 6mn b/d of crude, including a record 4.2mn b/d from Brazil in March, more than 900,000 b/d from Guyana and almost 900,000 b/d from Argentina. The 6mn b/d is six times Venezuela’s production, and far above Mexico’s 1.64mn b/d. But the three fastest-growing non-Opec producers want more investment to ensure the streak continues. Brazil needs to replace reserves to face a possible decline after 2030, Argentina has still not fully tapped its onshore Vaca Muerta formation and Guyana is seeking more investors beyond the ExxonMobil-led consortium that is its sole producer.
But upstream investment is tight globally, with two-thirds of energy investment this year going to renewable energy, the IEA has forecast. Guyana’s president, Irfaan Ali, called last week for the investment gap between renewable and fossil energies to be closed, to ensure enough fossil fuels can be produced to provide base-load energy supply.
Oil service provider Baker Hughes expects a low single-digit fall in upstream investment globally this year. It called for more investment, particularly in Latin America as well as the US and other deepwater regions. But even with big, beautiful blocks, the region will have to fight for its share of a shrinking pie to not miss this shot at expansion, government and company officials acknowledged.
In Brazil, even seismic data are “beautiful”, as a government promoter put it while touting the offshore Mogno block — in the prodigious pre-salt and which Brazil hopes to auction this year — to a room of potential investors. Not as big but almost as beautiful as Buzios, one of the world’s largest deepwater fields, ANP superintendent Marina Abelha said at a roadshow of 2026 offerings.
But the country will need to work on the “predictability, stability and pace” of its oil investment environment to remain competitive as global capital grows increasingly selective, its leading private-sector producer Shell’s vice-president of pre-salt operations, Pablo Tejera Cuesta, said. While Brazil is highly attractive for capital, “it doesn’t necessarily mean it is here to stay unless we fight for it”, he said. “It is not a question of demand, but where does the capital flow and why.”
Brazil is working on ways to spruce up its offers, state officials said, including increasing an offer of barrels for export this year, building a digital bidding platform for acreage auctions and constantly reviewing new areas to offer.
Argentina is banking on its large-investment promotion scheme, Rigi, to pull in more upstream spending. The country needs more partners given the scale of infrastructure required, state-owned YPF’s chief executive, Horacio Marin, said. “We need all the companies to build a profitable ecosystem,” he added.
Guyana is also reviewing investment and related laws, even after passing its petroleum investment framework law in 2023, Bobby Gossai, a senior adviser to the natural resources ministry, said. It also recently signed an agreement to start 6-12 months’ work on 3D seismic offshore, to process data for future bidding rounds. It wants these to be “a little more business-friendly and investment-friendly”, he said, even if not as big as Stabroek, Guyana’s only producing block. “You are pushing at an open door,” Gossai said. “Guyana is open for business.”
By Carla Bass
