THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/24 Date:13 November2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intelligence and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat /impact to the Security of Maritime Operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd which maintains the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
OBJECTIVES
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RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: November 12-26, 251
1 In accordance to JMIC /or UKMTO sources
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
Syria (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Gaza-Israel (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
Red Sea – Yemen
Northern Persian Gulf / Iran-Israel conflict
RUSSIA-UKRAINE war (Black Sea / NW part)
RUSSIA-UKRAINE war (Baltic Sea / NE part)
Cyber-defense / Risks assessment and mitigation by CyberPax (new section)
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
East Mediterranean Sea
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
Gulf of Aden – Somalia
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
Malacca Straits
Black Sea / East Part
Baltic Sea / West part
Taiwan – Japan Sea
Taiwan – South China Sea
SEA GUARDIAN, focusing on the contradiction of Taiwan with China amid the interactions with Japan on the North and Indonesia group of islands on the South, assesses that regional stability depends on a multiplexed chart.
Thus, consults shipping to proceed in its activities having into consideration the Geo-politic fragility and balances in the area, as they have been cited in this report.
Piracy – Boarding conditions, kidnapping, firing, electronic harassment
OVERALL ASSESSMENT – CONSULTING
• Global geopolitical and security conditions continue to generate instability across key maritime and trade corridors. The oil transportation market is shifting, with growth in MR and /LR2 tankers strengthening product-tanker capacity, while container freight rates have begun to soften again after a period of increases.
• Global maritime trade deals with more instability these days. Political tensions and regional conflicts keep messing up important sea routes. Piracy shows up again in various spots. Terrorism and unrest pop up in multiple areas. Global tariff pressures play a role in that while Geopolitical rivalries heat up more. Military actions go on in the Middle East while NATO runs more exercises in Baltic Sea. Russia and Asian countries make diplomatic moves while PLA stays active near and around Taiwan.
• Although the Suez Canal’s full reopening is easing some logistical pressure, renewed maritime attacks remain a potential disruptor even if Houthi forces have temporarily frozen operations in the Red Sea. You can see the ANNEX A for overall /risks levels visualized on chart and the fluctuations in relative traffic performance.
• Technological modernization in shipping is advancing, with new ABS regulations enabling drones to conduct standardized steel-structure inspections, improving safety and reducing time and cost for shipowners.
• Cyber risks and GNSS spoofing bring extra dangers. Amid this improvement to the next era of net-working command and control of ships a new threat is arising, the threat against Cyber-attacks, while the methods and training is needed to be applied. Such skills are provided by special training centers as it has been applied in many cases in port and energy infrastructure worldwide. SEA GUARDIAN pursues synergies with specialized training centers to provide services for the new digital threats, risks mitigation measures and assessments.
• As reports from SEA GUARDIAN point to a change for the war chart, it looks like post-war times where old threats come back. Thus, the advice goes to shipping firms about the fact of piracy, smuggling, and hijackings rise with fresh twists from around the world. Sailing through risky shipping lanes, needs better intelligence for security setups, by adding in geopolitics / geoeconomics watching with tech checks. That helps keep things tough against problems. In the end, shipping paths stay open to attacks without real calm in regions. Risks hold at high levels either sourced in war condition or International Maritime Crime. Lessons Learned in the latest period are depicted in the ANNEX B.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department ( / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
ANNEX “A” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
Sea Guardian S.G.
Ltd / Intel Department ( / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
Useful links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department ( / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
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