THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/21 Date: 16 October 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat /impact to the Security of Maritime Operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd which maintains the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
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RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On October 07,
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have detained nine employees of the United Nations
as part of a long-running crackdown on the organization, the U.N. said. The detentions bring the number of detained U.N. employees in Houthi-held territories in Yemen to 53 since 2021, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said in a statement. No details about the circumstances or timing of the latest detentions were provided. Houthi officials did not respond to calls and messages seeking comment. The rebels have previously said that their crackdown on the U.N.
and other international groups is linked to suspected members of an alleged espionage network.
MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: September 30- October 14, 251
1 In accordance to JMIC /or UKMTO sources
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
Syria
Lebanon
Gaza-Israel
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
Red Sea – Yemen
Northern Persian Gulf / Iran-Israel conflict
Russia – Ukraine / Black Sea NW part
Baltic Sea / NE part
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
Central Mediterranean Sea
East Mediterranean Sea
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
Gulf of Aden – Somalia
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
Malacca Straits
Black Sea / East Part
Baltic Sea / West part
Taiwan – Japan Sea
Taiwan – South China Sea
Piracy – Boarding conditions, kidnapping, firing, electronic harassment
OVERALL ASSESSMENT – CONSULTING
Overall, SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the world is entering an era where
economic performance, energy security, and maritime stability are tightly interlinked
with political, criminality at the borderline of terrorism and cyber risks. Governments and private entities alike are urged to enhance intelligence sharing, strengthen risk management, and adopt proactive security postures to safeguard assets and maintain operational continuity amid growing global uncertainty.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and /ICC.
Useful documents / manuals and links
a. For GNSS interference:
/1/ G1082 Ed2.1 An Overview of AIS June 2016
/2/ EUROCONTROL Guidelines on a Process for Civil and Military GNSS Interference Testing
/3/ Global Navigation Satellite System GNSS Radio Frequency Interference
/4/ ICAO GNSS RFI MITIGATION PLAN
b. For other shipping issues:
Companies under sanction by Ukraine (Black Sea):Database Of Legal Entities Under Sanctions
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department ( / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
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