With momentum from 2025 continuing into the first days of 2026, the geopolitical upheavals persist, which for the most part affect the oil markets and the tanker freight market.
Iran, the Black Sea and Venezuela compose a puzzle difficult to solve for the players in the tanker market, Gibson highlights in a recent report. Regarding the developments in Iran, the tense situation may have subsided, but in the short term the greatest risk is a US attack. The Revolutionary Guards have emphasized that any attack would cause extensive retaliation across the entire region. The main threats remain disruptions to the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional oil infrastructure, while an attack could also push the Houthis to restart attacks on commercial vessels from the Red Sea. In such a scenario, Gibson explains, insurance premiums and freight rates would likely increase, to reflect the higher regional risk.
Furthermore, a regime change could have significant implications for oil production, as, despite the intensification of sanctions, Iran remains a significant oil supplier. As with Venezuelan oil, China’s independent refineries are the most exposed to any disruptions, as almost all Iranian crude exports are destined for China. If the availability of Venezuela and Iran is further reduced, these refineries would be forced to seek alternative solutions, potentially boosting demand for Russian and other countries’ oil.
Conversely, an approach from Washington could lead to a normalization of Iranian exports. Although it would take years to implement such a scenario, the impact on the tanker markets could be significant. At the peak of the sanctions relief in 2017, Iran exported over 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day to international markets, compared to the 1.5 million barrels per day it is estimated to have exported last year, mainly to China. In the event of sanctions being lifted, Iranian crude oil is likely to quickly return to India, Europe and the Mediterranean, as well as to South Korea and other major Asian economies. Although Iran has many vessels, most of them do not meet the inspection standards of major buyers, a fact that would lead to a return to conventional tonnage. Gibson estimates that, in a moderate export scenario of 2 million barrels daily, the lifting of sanctions against Iran would create demand for 25 VLCCs and 20 Suezmaxes, assuming commercial standards would be similar to those of 2018.
It is also worth noting that, of the approximately 200 VLCCs in the dark fleet, almost all support either Iran’s or Venezuela’s exports. Considering the recent developments in Venezuela, the approach with Iran could ultimately lead to a mass removal of these vessels from the global oil supply chain, to the benefit of the compliant tanker market.
The events in Iran therefore have the potential to lead to a huge shift in the tanker markets, however only time will tell if the status quo will be maintained or if the US will continue to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic.
