Sea-Intelligence outlines the balance between supply and demand in liner shipping in its new analysis. Based on data regarding the evolution of transport capacity supply and transport demand, Sea-Intelligence estimates that a wave of oversupply will hit the market, with its peak placed chronologically within 2027.
In fact, supply is estimated to reach 2016 levels, but not the catastrophically high levels of 2009, in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It is certainly worth noting that Sea-Intelligence reached the above conclusion by assuming that the Red Sea crisis will last until mid-2026. The extent to which this estimate will be confirmed is a pivotal point for the analysis, as, if the crisis extends further in time, it may absorb part of the supply to a degree. On the other hand, the rise in supply will also depend on whether orders for newbuild containerships will continue at the same frenetic pace.
Parallel to all the above, the analysis takes as a given that the recycling market will be significantly boosted from 2026, resulting in the removal of 13% of the global containership fleet, which is now over 20 years old.
In any case, any estimate regarding the course of the containership freight market is deemed precarious.
