Sweden, Denmark, and Norway have unilaterally extended controls at internal borders, in some cases until May 2026
Northern Europe is acting as an economic and geopolitical barometer, signaling a crisis of confidence in the principle of free movement which is the pillar of the Single Market: Sweden, Denmark, and Norway have unilaterally extended controls at internal borders, in some cases until May 2026. The official motivation, cited by the governments, is no longer just migratory pressure, but a growing and more complex security threat: from extremist-based terrorism to sabotage and destabilization activities orchestrated by “foreign states” (as in the Swedish case) and organized crime. This move is not isolated: key countries like Austria, France, and the Netherlands have adopted similar measures, prolonging controls with justifications ranging from enhanced internal surveillance to the management of irregular flows. Article 25 of the Schengen Borders Code, born for exceptional situations, has de facto become a routine of political and security management, with increasingly hefty and quantifiable economic costs.
The great paradox is that this fragmentation strikes at the heart of the Union’s greatest economic resource: the free movement of goods. The volume of intra-EU trade is colossal: in the period January-July 2025, the total value of goods traded between member countries reached the impressive figure of 2,426.3 billion euros, an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous year (Eurostat data, September 2025). This continuous flow of manufactured products, which constitute about 78% of the total traded within the Union, depends almost entirely on road logistics. Road freight transport dominates the continent, handling about 78% of the total freight (equivalent to approximately 1,869 billion tonne-kilometers in 2024). The entire fleet of heavy goods vehicles (trucks) in circulation in the EU amounts to about 6.5 million units, a vital ecosystem. The five largest markets (Germany, Poland, Spain, France, and Italy) hold the predominant share of this fleet. Every minute of delay at the border, multiplied by thousands of daily transits and millions of vehicles, results in damage that reverberates along the entire value chain.
The economic impact of a “fragmented Schengen” is estimated in billions. Although current estimates may vary, previous studies quantified the potential total economic damage for the EU at around 51 billion euros, over a two-year period, in the case of a generalized suspension of controls. Road transport costs are already rising due to external factors (fuel, driver shortage) and the incidence of transport costs on the value of exported goods has risen for the second consecutive year in countries like Italy. The growing logistical friction clashes with a sector struggling to grow: in 2024, new truck registrations in the EU recorded a drop of 6.3%, a symptom of a difficult business environment and shrinking transport demand. Furthermore, the first months of 2025 saw the European Road Freight Transport Capacity Index record an annual decline of -5%, reflecting a deterioration in logistical fluidity.
Complicating the picture is the need to maintain the fluidity of extra-EU trade.
The Union is highly exposed to global dynamics: in 2024, China remained the main supplier of goods (accounting for approximately 20.1% of extra-EU imports), followed by the United States (12.9%). The management of the external borders, where huge trade deficits in goods are recorded (for example, 170.2 billion euros for the Netherlands in 2023), requires resources and attention. The reintroduction of internal controls, although justified by security reasons, sends a dangerous signal: the inability to manage threats in a coordinated way is forcing States to sacrifice the economic benefits of cohesion. Fragmentation not only increases logistical costs for businesses, but exposes the entire supply chain to greater unpredictability in a global context where competition is increasingly fierce. Europe is facing the risk of dismantling, brick by brick, the Single Market: Brussels must find as soon as possible common and effective security protocols that do not impose an unsustainable cost on its 2.400 billion euros of internal trade.
