Global maritime shipping markets continue to be affected by significant structural disruptions. The EU’s ban on Russian oil imports and ongoing diversions in the Suez Canal are lengthening voyage distances and tightening vessel supply.
These developments are strongly supporting current freight rates. However, the market faces an additional complexity due to the existence of a significant shadow fleet carrying sanctioned crude oil and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. These cargoes are primarily shipped to China and India, displacing traditional tonnage demand.
A successful tightening of sanctions enforcement against these grey fleet operations presents a potential upside catalyst for the earnings of non-sanctioned vessels and future rate expectations.
Veson Nautical’s Maritime Market Outlook report for Q4 2025 provides a quarterly summary of how this uncertainty could play out for the tanker, bulk carrier, container, and gas industries.
Tankers
-Geopolitical disruptions increase ton-mile demand: Sanctions on Russian crude oil by the EU and route changes in the Red Sea have significantly extended travel distances. Europe’s shift from short-distance Russian supply to longer-distance Middle Eastern, US, and Latin American crude oil is supporting tanker ton-mile demand.
-Peak oil demand trend emerging: Structural changes such as improvements in engine efficiency, electrification trends, fuel switching initiatives, and the adoption of remote work are putting increasing pressure on transportation fuel demand, indicating a slowdown in demand growth in the coming period.
-Fleet expansion threatens market balance: Increasing new vessel deliveries and limited scrapping activity will create downward pressure on utilization rates after 2025, potentially offsetting positive developments on a ton-mile basis, even though the current 16% orderbook represents moderate fleet growth.
-Sharp decline in new shipbuilding activity: Since the beginning of the year, tanker contract volumes remain 55% below 2024 levels, with product tanker orders down 70% and crude tanker orders down 42%. However, sustained demand for container ships is keeping shipyard utilization high and newbuild prices above historical averages.
-China remains a critical source of demand: China’s ongoing demand for oil imports remains fundamental to the health of the tanker market, but increasing demand from India and other Asian economies will help mitigate a potential growth slowdown in China.
Bulk Carriers
-Market balance supports strong prices: The bulk carrier market is currently in a healthy balance following years of low fleet growth and stable demand.
This situation ensured the maintenance of robust freight rates throughout the year despite global economic uncertainty and weak demand growth.
-Ton-mile demand increases despite volume decline: While declines in iron ore and coal volumes are expected, long-haul trade such as the new Guinea-China iron ore route with the opening of the Simandou mine, along with ongoing Red Sea diversions, are increasing ton-mile demand and supporting market strength.
-China’s steel sector faces structural challenges: The slowdown in China’s real estate sector continues to negatively impact domestic steel demand. While steel production and iron ore imports have declined since the beginning of the year, growth in steel exports faces new obstacles due to anti-dumping investigations and customs tariffs imposed by trade partners.
-Green transition creates mixed commodity flows: Decarbonization efforts are boosting demand for low-volume commodities like bauxite, supporting China-Guinea trade, but are also reducing seaborne thermal coal trade as major consumers like China and India increase their renewable energy capacity and domestic production self-sufficiency.
Container
-Stagnation in TEU-mile growth expected despite Red Sea diversions: Growth in container TEU-mile demand is expected to reach only 2.4% in 2025 and average 3% between 2026-2028. While US import tariffs slow growth, the upside potential from Red Sea diversions is limited, as the extra sailing distances are already factored into current market dynamics.
-Freight rates remain stable, but a decline is expected: Despite approximately 4.3 million TEU of deliveries, freight rates remained stable in 2024 and early 2025, supported by carriers reducing average speeds by 2.3% to limit supply growth. However, rates are expected to decline steadily from 2026 onwards as fleet growth outpaces demand.
-Fleet expansion to outpace demand growth: Net fleet growth averaged 5.5% in 2023 and 9.7% in 2024, with an average growth of 8.7% forecast for 2025-2028 due to the impact of high ordering activity. Growth in container TEU-mile demand is more moderate, creating a supply-demand imbalance.
-Strong order activity to create future oversupply: High freight rates led to strong order activity, with approximately 3.3 million TEU contracted in 2025, and an oversupply is expected with around 10 million TEU entering the market over the next few years, despite ongoing route diversion requirements due to geopolitical disruptions.
Gas
-Export growth from the US and Middle East boosts supply: US LPG production increased by around 4.5% in 2024, while exports grew by 10.9%. In the Middle East, despite oil production cuts, exports increased by 6.5%.
It is estimated that several terminal expansion and LNG projects will further increase export capacity by 2028.
-Fleet expansion is outpacing demand growth: /VLAC net fleet growth reached 10.9% in 2024 and is projected to average 7.4% annually, while medium-sized vessel growth averaged 10.1% in 2024 and, despite a decrease in contracts in 2025, is expected to be 11.4% annually until 2028 due to the impact of high historical ordering activity.
-VLGC earnings strong in the short term but pressure is mounting: VLGC earnings averaged $43,/day in 2024 and are expected to reach around $51,/day in 2025. Although the outlook for 2026 is positive, supported by volume growth in the U.S. and the Middle East, the market balance appears set to come under pressure from 2027 onwards as new deliveries accelerate.
-Despite recent weakness, China remains the main driver of demand: Asia-Pacific LPG imports increased by 11% in 2024, while China’s imports from the U.S. rose by 37%. However, China’s import volumes were weak in the first half of 2025. China’s planned PDH expansion is expected to support future growth in LPG demand.
-Petrochemical trade faces structural challenges: Overcapacity and weak demand persist in the petrochemical sector. Due to trade tensions, U.S. ethylene exports to Asia fell by 79% in the first half of 2025. However, while the sector awaits a macroeconomic recovery, growth in intra-Asia trade and developments in regional self-sufficiency are supporting cubic-meter-mile demand.
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