Geopolitics again took centre stage in BIMCO’s latest Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, which signalled a diverging trajectory for crude and product tankers
In BIMCO’s latest Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, its chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen, said the crude market appears broadly balanced next year, but warns of a shift as the orderbook arrives.
“We forecast balanced supply and demand growth for the crude tanker market in 2026 but a weakening in 2027 as ship deliveries increase,” he said.
“Unfortunately, the product tanker market is expected to continue to weaken during both years as ship deliveries hit 15-year highs and supply therefore outpaces demand,” said Mr Rasmussen.
Crude tanker demand growth was forecast at 1–2% in 2026 and 0–1% in 2027, against supply growth of 1-2% and 3-4% respectively.
In the product segment, BIMCO projected supply growth of 5-6% in both 2026 and 2027, while demand was estimated at around 1-2%, pointing to progressively softer fundamentals for clean tonnage.
Oil market dynamics reinforced that picture, “According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil oversupply could average 4.1M barrels per day in 2026. We expect that inventory building will continue in 2026 and support crude tanker demand, but we foresee that may end in 2027,” said Mr Rasmussen.
The IEA expects oil demand and refinery throughput to continue to grow in emerging and developing economies in Asia and Africa, while developing economies elsewhere are set to see lower refinery throughput and only very minor demand growth.
