As the shipbroking firm Gibsons points out in its analysis, this change intensified during the first quarter of 2026 and the so-called “clean-to-dirty switching” not only accelerated but turned into a key market balancing mechanism, as geopolitical developments acted as a catalyst for a massive shift of tonnage from clean product transport to dirty trades.
At the core of this shift lies the paralysis of the Persian Gulf region, which removed approximately 2.4 million barrels per day of clean petroleum products from the market.
With crude exports and refinery activity in the region declining, a large number of vessels left the East and headed towards the Atlantic, seeking new employment. There, many shipowners made a decisive operational choice: they converted coated LR2 tankers into dirty units, aiming to capitalize on the surge in freight rates on crude oil transport routes.
The change was also clearly reflected in freight rate levels. In April, spot market earnings for the TD25 route (Gulf of Mexico-Northwest Europe) soared to an average of 153,250 dollars per day for eco vessels, compared to 85,750 dollars in February.
At the same time, although the clean markets strengthened, they remained significantly behind. Specifically, the TC15 route (Mediterranean-East Asia) via the Cape of Good Hope yielded an average of 81,750 dollars per day in April, up from just 27,000 dollars in February.
This difference was enough to lead many shipowners to decide to “dirty” their vessels, despite the fact that returning them to clean trades later is neither simple nor cheap.
After all, as has been observed many times, several companies change the commercial use of their vessels when freight rate differences make it economically advantageous.
According to Gibsons data, the strengthening of the dirty market was mainly supported by the surge in US crude exports.
Open arbitrage and releases from strategic reserves boosted demand on the TD25 route, while simultaneously increasing the need for aframaxes, which transported cargoes to VLCCs.
At the same time, the return of Venezuelan crude to the mainstream market tightened regional demand even further.
Exports to the Gulf of Mexico reached 485,000 barrels per day in April, up from 280,000 barrels in January, confirming how quickly flows resumed.
Beyond the Atlantic, the Pacific also acted as a secondary field for absorbing tonnage. After discharging naphtha from the Middle East in Asia, many shipowners found themselves without sufficient options for transporting “clean” products.
The solution was again dirty, this time targeting trades across the Pacific. Vessels competed for crude cargoes from Vancouver or even sailed in ballast to Argentina, in order to take advantage of improved export opportunities.
The percentage of the coated LR2 fleet that had shifted to the dirty market had reached approximately 52.5%.
This massive movement, combined with the arrival of additional aframaxes from the East and the gradual de-escalation of seasonal delays, led freight rates into a sharp correction.
The market essentially retreated towards pre-war levels, without, however, ceasing to move within historically high zones.
Regarding the question of whether these LR2s that have been converted into dirty cargo transport units can easily return to the clean trades, the analysis underscores that even if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the physical damage suffered by Middle Eastern refineries foreshadows a slow recovery of clean product exports.
In other words, so many LR2s will not be immediately needed to serve the traditional petroleum product trade.
Essentially, the return of these vessels to the clean market will take time, something that could sustain volatility.
Based on the same data, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea remain critical factors. Russian crude oil exports continue to decline due to Ukrainian attacks on processing facilities.
At the same time, the EU has kept a full ban on providing shipping services for Russian crude pending.
A potential change in this stance could once again overturn the market, immediately removing compliant tankers from Russian trades and creating a short-term tonnage surplus in conventional markets.
Above all, however, looms the threat of capacity supply, as 83 deliveries of newbuild aframaxes are expected for 2026, at a rate of increase not seen since 2009.
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